More competitive primaries = A stronger foundation in more states, and more engaged red state Democrats.
Stronger foundation in more states = Easier to run the 50 state strategy
50 state strategy = Stretches Republicans, forces them to defend their base, favors the small donation large number of volunteers style the Democrats, not the big money small number of people style of the Republicans.
And the result of all this? Sarah Palin making campaign stops in Nebraska in the last 40 days of the campaign.
I’m not sure there’s a stronger case to be made for the adoption of new party rules to make the Democratic primaries more competetive. As long as the party remains united, and it has (anyone still hearing about those PUMAs?), a longer and more competetive primary is extremely healthy for the party. You can’t be lucky if you’re not present, and having a presence in Nebraska and Georgia and North Carolina and Missouri and Georgia has made a huge difference this time around, enabling the Obama campaign to capitalize on current events and send the McCain campaign reeling. This is how the party should be thinking and operating in the future. This is how we win elections.
Update: No, No, she’s staying in. Reality is but a fly on her windshield.
Senator Hillary Clinton has canceled her Wednesday schedule. Does she just need a day off, or is she seriously considering conceding? Its sad at this point that we can’t reasonably tell the difference.
There’s absolutely no need to restate these facts, but again for the record:
1. She can’t catch up with Obama (she hasn’t been able to for a while).
2. The only way she can get more delegates is through privately pursuading super-delegates (not very democratic).
3. Her only viable approach to the nomination would therefore have to be non-democratic, since even by thoroughly destroying Obama’s character, she won’t earn any more votes until she back-door deals the super-delegates.
Why is it taking so long to realize that this is a disastrous course of action?
Terry McAuliffe, referring to Michigan trying to move up their primary in 2004 when he was DNC Chairman:
“Carl, take it to the bank,” I said. “They will not get a credential. The closest they’ll get to Boston will be watching it on television. I will not let you break this entire nominating process for one state. The rules are the rules. If you want to call my bluff, Carl, you go ahead and do it.”
That was 2004, this is now: McAuliffe is now calling for Michigan results to count, saying,
“I’m saying they’ve already voted, let’s count the votes. I’m saying that the state parties in those states need to work with the national party and figure out how we count the votes that have already been voted.”
So basically, Mr. McAuliffe is a hypocrite who is saying exactly the opposite of last election cycle. Simply put, there is a very clear reason why I don’t want Hillary as the nominee, and part of it is because she puts scumbags like Terry McAuliffe and Mark Penn in positions of power within her campaign. After all, if she can’t run her campaign competently, how can we trust her to steward the nation?
Inevitably, tonight and tomorrow will be filled with hyperbole concerning the impact of tonight’s results. I’m not here to discount their significance entirely- the polling in Texas especially is compelling, though it did show the late-deciders going towards Hillary, which seems to be what happened.
First things first: The delegate count for today will be incredibly close to a draw, though I expect HRC to take a net gain of +6 or so, which is a small dent in the pledged delegate lead.
The lasting legacy of tonight is that it will likely reinforce Hillary’s negative tactics and direct attacks on Obama and keep her in the race substantially longer, since today has given her a narrative she can run on, at least for the time being. While I do not expect her to win the nomination, this will have a dramatic effect on the national campaign, especially when coupled with John McCain securing the GOP nomination tonight. Essentially, the next month will be a two on one, since I’m positive McCain and the GOP know they have more than enough material to hammer HRC on should that time come. After all, the strengths she’s touting against Obama (particularly experience and national secruity) are gigantic weaknesses against McCain. If a person has national secruity as their #1 issue, why would they vote for Hillary over McCain?
Also, this does not bode well for Obama in the General Election, should he be the nominee. While he does not need to take Ohio or Texas to win the GE, losing to Hillary with as much momentum as he had sends the message to me that they probably would go McCain over him in the General, though of course that could change in the next six months. That said, he is a substantially stronger candidate overall in the GE because he is a less polarizing figure and runs well enough to win the blue states easily, believes in a 50-state strategy that is pivotal for making the GOP spend their money in every state (particularly salient if Obama holds his $ advantage through then), and can turn a few red/purple states blue in November, while also providing a natural foil to McCain that Hillary simply is not.
In summation, tonight changes the narrative and hurts the Democrats’ chances of taking the White House in November to a degree, but the aggregate impact of the February wins and the overall delegate lead for Obama should prove substantial enough to get him the nomination.
It’s time to write the diary it feels like I’ve waited a lifetime to write.
This story requires an introduction and an explanation, and there’s no better place to start than the beginning. I grew up fascinated with the presidency, reading every book I could get my hands on and memorizing my “President’s Cards”, which are essentially the least sexy trading cards on this earth. Despite idolizing Bill Clinton, it always seemed like there was something missing that I had seen in both the deeds and the perceptions from the Lincoln’s, Kennedy’s, and Roosevelt’s of the past. Like most youth, I became more cynical and eventually took the step which inevitably leads to losing faith in the process: becoming a Political Science major. Between that and George W Bush, it’s amazing there is any faith left.
For many reasons, Senator Barack Hussein Obama is the human embodiment of why that hope can (and should) be able to soar. Not only is he the best candidate in this election, he is the Democrat most likely to win the White House and actually make the changes that America so desperately needs.
1. Obama the uniter
Having studied the politics of the past thirty years in painful detail, there is one thing that is abundantly clear: the only way to make meaningful change in this country is to expand the base and have closer to universal support for the future steps down the line. There are countless examples of where divisive politics have failed the American people recently, and I’ll mention two: the collapse of the potential health care policy in the Clinton years and the hatchet job that happened to John McCain in the primaries in 2000. Both of these events showed the callousness and self-interested nature of many politicians, and I am wholly convinced that Hillary Rodham Clinton will follow the divisive past of her husband and she has already shown these tendencies. Barack Obama is not that type of politician, and reaching across the aisle and trying to connect with those who are disillusioned by the deplorable Bush Administration rather than isolating them is simply put the only way for the left to hold any meaningful control over this country.
2. Obama the steward of America
People will take different things away from this campaign no matter how it goes, but the thing that stands out to me is Senator Obama’s speech at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, Georgia on Martin Luther King Day. This is not because it was a phenomenal speech that galvanized those in attendance (and those who watched it over the internet), but because he was willing to bring the truth of the black communities’ treatment of homosexuals and Jewish people over time, which to put it simply is an insanely difficult thing to do. It is that type of integrity that the President of the United States of America needs to embody, rather than emulate. The Commander-in-Chief needs to lead by word and deed, and Senator Obama is the most capable of doing that. While his hands are not totally clean, he has been the most upfront about the times he has transgressed and has not “flip-flopped” on issues like Senator Clinton and Senator Edwards have on the War in Iraq. Furthermore, he has avoided the lies and deceit that plague bad campaigns and the bad people that run them. The appalling way that Senator Clinton and her campaign has handled Senator Obama’s “present” votes in the Illinois state legislature by relying on information asymmetry to mislead the American public both in the debate and on her website is not what America needs in a President. Regime change starts at home, and no one could do it better than Barack Obama.
3. Obama the electable candidate
There is the well-founded view that a black man cannot be elected right now in this country, and honestly, there still may be some truth to that. However, Senator Obama is still the most electable candidate on the Democratic side. He is the only candidate that can stand toe-to-toe with John McCain on national security and make a credible argument. Why would someone who cares about national security side with Hillary over McCain? The only way to fight someone on their main issue is to have someone who can take them on fairly, strongly, and honestly. What’s more, we can all see the power of the youth vote in this election, and no one will get the kids out like Senator Obama. Today in South Carolina, Obama took a majority of the youth vote. Many will say that the youth vote is insignificant because of previous turnout. However, there has not been a candidate worth fighting and voting for…until now. Also, Obama’s message brings independents and minorities (specifically blacks given his limited Latino support right now) to the Democratic side, which not only helps him win the election, but it produces a wave effect which could bring more Democratic seats in Congress, which is another key foothold for meaningful long-term change in this country.
4. Obama the individual
A year ago, I was a cynical college student who had lost faith in the people and the process. Found out through the grapevine that Senator Obama was going to speak in Los Angeles and decided to see what he was about. Through a miscommunication with the UCLA Democratic group, I arrived at the event an hour earlier than most and got separated from the people I was going to volunteer with. At first, this led to a little alone time, but I eventually connected with the people around me and ended up in the front row of the non-volunteers. I went in to the speech as an uncommitted voter and was immediately consumed with the power Mr. Obama has. He is a wordsmith of the highest caliber and has a level of emotion and belief that simply cannot be quantified. Having never experienced anything like it, I was overcome with emotion.
Coincidentally, after he finished speaking, the volunteers filed out of their section and Senator Obama came around shaking hands. Blown away, I told him “You’re going to do this” and without hesitation he looked me straight in the eyes and said “No, we’re going to do this” with unmatched conviction.
Barack Obama is not only the candidate most likely to win the Presidency on the Democratic side if nominated; he will be the type of President who restores belief in the system both here and abroad in a time when that level of hope and conviction is so desperately needed.
John Edwards is in a win-win situation. Here’s his primary outlook:
1. Places 2nd or 1st in Iowa, seriously damages Obama or Hillary, and rides tons of media coverage into New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina (where you’d think he’d be doing better than 15 percent considering he’s form North Carolina). Has a plausible chance at winning because his success almost guarantees the failure of another major candidate.
2. Places any worse than 2nd, soldiers on through Nevada, then, unless he’s back in serious contention, makes a back-room deal with Hillary or Obama for VP, drops out, tells all his voters that he’s backing that candidate, and begins campaigning on his or her behalf if necessary.
3. Places 3rd by a close margin in Iowa, and stays competitive to a degree that he wouldn’t consider dropping out. Goes to the convention with enough delegates to get anything he wants. Gets anything he wants in exchange for his delegates and the de facto nomination.
No one else on the campaign is in as sweet a spot as this. Richardon, Dodd, Biden, and Kucinich are polling too low to extort anyone with delegates, and Obama and Hillary have expectations that are so high that any power play like this would be impossible.
