UPDATE: 7:45PM PT
Chris Dodd is out. Meanwhile, McCain and Thompson fight for 3rd place. In his heart of hearts, Fred probably wants to lose and be done with it.
Obama now stands at 38%, Edwards at 30%, Clinton at 29%. Its not the percent itself that should worry her, its the differnce in media coverage from a tie for second place to an outright 3rd place finish. Before, things looked even better for Obama, where the media could say Iowa clearly preferred Obama and was indifferent between Clinton and Edwards. Now, they could say that Iowa prefers Obama, and between Edwards and Clinton would still take Edwards.
Edwards is still definitely viable. But how long can he hang on, considering the buzz-saw that is New Hampshire? And what of his poor showings so far in South Carolina? Those are not likely to hold either, since it was Clinton who was doing the best there.
Implications – Republicans:
NH currently stands as McCain 31%, Romney 28%, Giuliani 10%, Huckabee 9.5, Paul 7%, Thompson 2%. That also has no chance of staying put.
Some questions remaining: Will McCain’s 13% showing hurt him in NH? Romney’s 25% hurt him even more? What effect will Thompson’s 14% have on his campaign in NH?
Lastly, how much will this help Huckabee in NH? After all, this is a state that seems not to be his best campaigning grounds?
Implications – Democrats:
In New Hampshire, this will not hold up: Clinton 34% Obama 27% Edwards 19%.
Obama could see at least 30% in NH, with Edwards likely seeing a boost of at least a few percent. Clinton’s future likely hinges on how this is portrayed in the media, which likely hinges on if she can somehow manage either 2nd place or a tie. If the minor candidates drop out because of the Iowa threshold, Obama could benefit even more.
Obama’s blowout is even bigger news because of the low percentage of African Americans in Iowa. Unless, if you believe, like many people (including Dr. Ron Walters, a respected prof. and vet of the Jackson campaign), that Obama is not really very black at all.
Giuliani, who completely wrote off Iowa, still ended up with surprisingly low results, at 4%. Paul is whooping him, which is an interesting development if Giuliani ends up winning.
80% reporting – Obama at 36%. Edwards is edging Clinton by 31-30. If it holds up, losing by 1% is still a massive disappointment for Hillary.
Young voter turnout was reported as extremely high.
70% reporting, OBAMA IS CALLED AS WINNER. Edwards-Clinton tied at 31%.
Biden and Richardson are faring poorly because its impossible to reach the threshold when you have 3 huge candidate up ahead. 3 minor candidates are vying for roughly 10% of the remaining vote.
60% update: OBAMA 35%, Edwards 32%, Clinton 31%
HUCKABEE’S ATTACK AD RAN ANYWAYS:
Three TV stations evidently ran the attack ad. Probably had minimal effect. Huckabee played the victim to perfection in this race.
Now with 46% of precints reporting, Obama’s lead stands. He’s up 34%-32% on both Clinton and Edwards. Thankfully, the battle for 2nd place is just as interesting in this race.
With 37% of Democratic precincts reporting, we see Obama taking the lead at 33%, Edwards at 32%, Clinton at 32%. No minor candidate even close to 5%.
Regarding the Republicans: with Huckabee called as winner (35% now) will Romney’s 24% be enough to keep him afloat? Will Thompson’s 14% be enough to keep him interested? Will McCain’s 12% be enough to keep his NH campaign competitive?
Entrance polls by Fox evidently showed Huckabee and Obama with comfortable wins. Good to keep in mind to see how it plays out
Huge boost in percent reporting – Huckabee now in strong lead of Republican Caucus – 36% to Romney’s 23%. Thompson now at 14%, McCain at 1% and Paul at 11%. 15% reporting.
26% of Democratic Precincts show Clinton and Edwards tied at 33%, Obama at 32%. Richardson now at 2%, Biden at 1%.
Live Blogging the Iowa Caucus – I will regularly post thoughts at each 10% increase in the number of districts reporting.
…If this doesn’t work, I’m voting Gore-Diddy.
Entry polls showed Edwards support to be lagging, while Obama and Clinton appeared stronger.
However, as of 5:40 PT, Edwards is leading 36%, Clinton 32%, Obama 29%. Biden and Richardson are at 1%.
for the Republicans: McCain is out to an early lead, at 36%. Huckabee at 32%, Thompson at 29%. These have to be un-representative results, since Romney is at 0%.
7% reporting Democrat, 2% Republicans