Its been all over for a while now, and Hillary has convincingly won New Hampshire, in grand political theater that makes all of us, regardless of who we want to win, sit back for a minute and objectively appreciate the mayhem of this race.
Here are some of my preliminary thoughts on why Hillary might have won: (also see this article from RCP)
- Women came out in droves. Did the public emotion she showed earlier have an effect on this?
- Less educated and less wealthy individuals voted for Hillary.
- Could it be that, sensing defeat, Hillary’s voters made sure they came back strong?
- Could it be the tragedy of the commons, that Obama voters assumed that he would win and that they could stay home or even vote for McCain?
- Old people fell her way, and Obama did not enjoy a youth movement in NH like he did in Iowa.
- The age old specter of quiet and private racism hangs over this race. People do not want to acknowledge to themselves or pollsters that they are racist, and therefore say one thing when asked by a pollster but do another in the privacy of a voting booth. This cannot happen in a caucus. Nevada is a caucus state, and South Carolina has a significant African-American population, so we may not see this trend again for a while. However, if it is indeed what happened, it is a sad statement on race in America.
There’s undoubtedly going to be a lot more on this subject later on.