Rudy Giuliani is under 20% in his most important state, the one where he spent all his money trying to get people to remember him while a half dozen primaries dominated the media and public discourse. If he can’t turn it around, he pretty much has to drop out.
Meanwhile, Romney and McCain are essentially tied. If McCain wins it he only builds further momentum in CA, NY and NJ, Feb5th states where he is already leading. If Romney wins it, it might be more of a fight next week.
As far as I’m concerned, tonight could essentially decide the Republican nomination. If it is McCain, that only strengthens the case for Obama.