11:30 PST: Just got back from my cousin’s place, and seeing the results, this night reminds me a lot of 1968. Obama makes out like RFK (the candidate of somewhat vague hope), Clinton plays an excellent HHH (stodgy, a party insider, bad hair), and Mike Huckabee is the modern George Wallace (bludgeoning the party just for the sake of it). Oh, and George Romney, Mitt’s father, just happened to have run for the Republican nomination in 1968.
Come to think of it, the parallels are kind of intense.
10:00 PST: Something to watch- Hillary’s campaign has made “it’s all about the delegates” into a rallying cry…and despite her wins in the big states, MSNBC (and others) are projecting either a tie or a narrow win for either side on the delegate count, when a Hillary win of 100+ wouldn’t have been insurmountable.
It is going to be amazing to see how both campaigns handle today, especially to see if HRC can avoid sounding like a hypocrite
9:46 PST: Obama takes Missouri and Alaska according to MSNBC. Basically, all that’s left on the Dem side is New Mexico and the delegate counts for each of these states. One thing is clear: the nomination will not be decided tonight.
9:20 PST: McCain takes California and Missouri. Goodnight Mitt!
9:15 PST: Hillary takes California. It’s great for her, and we’ll have to see how the delegates shake out
9:08 PST: Huckabee takes Tennessee while Romney takes Montana and Minnesota- amazing how much of the Deep South is going for Huckabee
On the Dem side, Obama takes Colorado, with Hillary probably getting CA by 4-5% and Missouri far too close to call, even with 97% in.
8:45 PST: At 30% of precincts reporting, Obama is crushing Clinton in Colorado
8:30 PST: Time to catch up. Hillary takes Arizona and Barack has taken Utah, North Dakota, Kansas, and Minnesota. Colorado has a strong Obama lean (should be called at some point soon), and Missouri is too close to call, almost inevitably leading to a split.
What seems to me to be the story of the Democratic Super Tuesday is that even in the states where Hillary is doing well, Obama is not getting worked over on the delegates. States like Tennessee and Oklahoma bear this out, as do the smaller margins in some other states (though others like MA and NJ are a little bigger margins than expected). If it’s “all about the delegates”, Obama is having a fantastic day because he is dominating states like Georgia and Illinois and is minimizing delegate losses in the states he loses.
7:30 PST: Obama takes Connecticut
7:15 PST: Obama takes Kansas, another caucus.
6:45 PST: As things stand now, Clinton is estimated to have has 160 delegates and Obama is shown with 102. So far, he is keeping things close enough to tie or overtake her depending on good showings in the west.
6:20 PST: Clinton is projected for New York and New Jersey, Delegate wise, Obama is still doing very well and could still very well win Connecticut. Their offices are offering positive news, saying that they’ve outperformed in a number of state, while Hillary has only barely met expectations in the state’s she has won.
6:20 PST: McCain projected to win New York. Huckabee is doing him huge favors tonight by preventing Romney from getting too close. Still, I don’t think John McCain will stoop so low as to name him VP, though that ticket would likely be very strong.
6:05 PST: Obama wins Delaware.
6:00 PST: MSNBC calls New York for Hillary
5:59 PST: MSNBC and CNN call Massachusetts for Hillary
5:47 PST: MSNBC talking about the delegate counts: looks like despite Hillary’s big wins in OK and TN, the delegate counts may be closer than expected (about 8 delegate wins for each, compared to estimates from The Field et al for around 10 delegate wins)
5:45: Clinton takes Arkansas and Oklahom and is ahead in Missouri. Obama leads in Connecticut.
5:30 PST: McCain is projected to win Connecticut and New Jersey, Romney takes Massachusetts, Huckabee takes Arkansas.
5:15 PST: Tennessee is now called for Hillary Clinton.
5:15 PST: Huckabee is now ahead in Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, and Oklahoma.
5:05 PST: MSNBC calls Illinois for Obama and McCain, as well as Oklahoma for Clinton. Every other race is too close to call thus far.
4:50 PST: MSNBC reports that McCain’s lead in California may not be safe. Exit polls reported by their analysts say that Romney may have experienced a late surge.
4:45 PST: Exit Polling appears to indicate that McCain is leading in Georgia, at 37%. Huckabee at 33% and Romney at 25%
4:28 PST: Republican race in GA is too close to call- 3-way race between Huckabee, McCain, and Mitt.
4:24 PST: Gigantic win for Obama in Georgia- 86% of the black vote and (more importantly) 43% of the white vote. I’d guess somewhere between 20-35 delegate advantages for Obama
Earlier in the day: Huckabee wins West Virginia on the second ballot. Widespread reporting indicates that McCain, knowing he couldn’t beat Romney head to head, pledged his delegates to Huckabee in order to deprive Romney of delegates.